round-up of latest energy/sustainability/food & troubles-we-face posts…

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Fight of our lives: Moore’s Law vs. Murphy’s Law

Richard Heinberg, Post Carbon Institute

I live in Sonoma County, California, where officials declared last year that 90 percent of county roads will be allowed to deteriorate and gradually return to gravel, simply because there’s no money in the budget to pay for continued repairs.


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Alternatives to absurdity

John Michael Greer, The Archdruid Report

Obama’s recent speech on energy policy, which rehashed nearly every cliché uttered in forty years of empty White House rhetoric on the subject, drove home the hard fact that meaningful responses to the predicament of industrial society will not be forthcoming from the American political class. Instead, the foundations of a very different kind of energy system – localized, small-scale, and based on diffuse renewable energy – will need to be laid by individuals, families, and community groups.

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Economic Contraction

Joanne Poyourow, Transition US

Just like peak oil and global warming, economic contraction is a “game changer.” As the economy we now know crumbles, the far-reaching repercussions will sculpt every aspect of our future.  In my opinion, any long-term plan — Transition EDAPs included — must anticipate that it will unfold amidst a world of economic contraction. We have to plan for it, and put alternative financial tools in place to weather it, or it will undermine all of our other efforts.

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What is adapting in place?

Sharon Astyk, Casaubon’s Book

So what is Adapting In Place anyway? I’m writing a book about it (coming out next fall), I talk about it a lot, but what exactly am I getting at? It is partly about preparedness, both individual and community, partly about changing expectations, partly about achieving a kind of balance. It seems pedestrian in a way – lots of questions about how to do the laundry and keep food cool and work with your neighbors – ordinary things. Trivial seeming things.

archived April 5, 2011
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Spring permaculture tips and tricks

Chuck Burr, SOPI Permaculture Blog

Here is the Spring collection of permaculture tips and tricks from the Southern Oregon Permaculture Institute, enjoy

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Financial totalitarianism

Dmitry Orlov, Cluborlov

And so, the answer to the perennially annoying question “How do I invest my money for it to survive financial, political and commercial collapse?” is this: “There is no answer to your question. Try asking a different question, to which there might be an answer.”

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“Attracting Native Pollinators” – the Xerces Society’s must-have handbook

Adrian Ayres Fisher, Ecological Gardening

If you are responsible for and care for a backyard, school garden, park, farm, or reserve, this book is for you. If you are a fan of Douglas Tallamy’s Bringing Nature Home, or garden according to the permaculture principles espoused in Toby Hemenway’s Gaia’s Garden or H.C. Flores’ Food Not Lawns, this book is for you. If you garden for birds or wildlife, or are a landscape designer, this book is for you. And if you are interested in reconciliation ecology or are planning a perennial border, raingarden or bioswale this book is for you, as well.

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The quants and the poets

Paul Kingsnorth, Dark Mountain Project

If, a century ago, the keenest talking heads of the age (who would that have been, I wonder: Chesterton, Shaw, Belloc, Jo Chamberlain?) had battled it out amongst themselves about the future of infrastructure and energy, what would that debate have looked like?

(later quote,  re: global industrial machine =   “..that we are not going to be able to prevent the crash into the buffers – which has already begun – from getting very messy indeed.”)

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BY CAROLYN, ON MARCH 31ST, 2011
Food 2A local food revolution is quietly unfolding in our midst right here in Boulder County. It’s a revolution aimed at rebuilding this region’s capacity to feed its own people, to ensure food security and food sovereignty for all. . . . → Read More: The Local Food Revolution, By Michael Brownlee

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BY CAROLYN, ON MARCH 28TH, 2011
Sinking ShipORIGINAL ARTICLE (http://www NULL.truthdig NULL.com/report/item/the_collapse_of_globalization_20110328/)

The uprisings in the Middle East, the unrest that is tearing apart nations such as the Ivory Coast, the bubbling discontent in Greece, Ireland and Britain and the labor disputes in states such as Wisconsin and Ohio presage the collapse of globalization. They presage a world where vital resources, . . . → Read More: The Collapse of Globalization, By Chris Hedges

pull quote: “Adequate food, clean water and basic security are already beyond the reach of perhaps half the world’s population. Food prices have risen 61 percent globally since December 2008, according to the International Monetary Fund. The price of wheat has exploded, more than doubling in the last eight months to $8.56 a bushel”

big pull quote:  The refusal by all of our liberal institutions, including the press, universities, labor and the Democratic Party, to challenge the utopian assumptions that the marketplace should determine human behavior permits corporations and investment firms to continue their assault, including speculating on commodities to drive up food prices. It permits coal, oil and natural gas corporations to stymie alternative energy and emit deadly levels of greenhouse gases. It permits agribusinesses to divert corn and soybeans to ethanol production and crush systems of local, sustainable agriculture. It permits the war industry to drain half of all state expenditures, generate trillions in deficits, and profit from conflicts in the Middle East we have no chance of winning. It permits corporations to evade the most basic controls and regulations to cement into place a global neo-feudalism. The last people who should be in charge of our food supply or our social and political life, not to mention the welfare of sick children, are corporate capitalists and Wall Street speculators. But none of this is going to change until we turn our backs on the Democratic Party, denounce the orthodoxies peddled in our universities and in the press by corporate apologists and construct our opposition to the corporate state from the ground up. It will not be easy. It will take time. And it will require us to accept the status of social and political pariahs, especially as the lunatic fringe of our political establishment steadily gains power. The corporate state has nothing to offer the left or the right but fear. It uses fear—fear of secular humanism or fear of Christian fascists—to turn the population into passive accomplices. As long as we remain afraid nothing will change.

pull quote: We are seduced by this childish happy talk. Who wants to hear that we are advancing not toward a paradise of happy consumption and personal prosperity but a disaster?

pull quote; Dying civilizations often prefer hope, even absurd hope, to truth. It makes life easier to bear. It lets them turn away from the hard choices ahead to bask in a comforting certitude that God or science or the market will be their salvation. This is why these apologists for globalism continue to find a following. And their systems of propaganda have built a vast, global Potemkin village to entertain us. The tens of millions of impoverished Americans, whose lives and struggles rarely make it onto television, are invisible. So are most of the world’s billions of poor, crowded into fetid slums. We do not see those who die from drinking contaminated water or being unable to afford medical care. We do not see those being foreclosed from their homes. We do not see the children who go to bed hungry. We busy ourselves with the absurd. We invest our emotional life in reality shows that celebrate excess, hedonism and wealth. We are tempted by the opulent life enjoyed by the American oligarchy, 1 percent of whom control more wealth than the bottom 90 percent combined.

another big pull quote:  (end of his article) = The propagandists for globalism are the natural outgrowth of this image-based and culturally illiterate world. They speak about economic and political theory in empty clichés. They cater to our subliminal and irrational desires. They select a few facts and isolated data and use them to dismiss historical, economic, political and cultural realities. They tell us what we want to believe about ourselves. They assure us that we are exceptional as individuals and as a nation. They champion our ignorance as knowledge. They tell us that there is no reason to investigate other ways of organizing and governing our society. Our way of life is the best. Capitalism has made us great. They peddle the self-delusional dream of inevitable human progress. They assure us we will be saved by science, technology and rationality and that humanity is moving inexorably forward.

None of this is true. It is a message that defies human nature and human history. But it is what many desperately want to believe. And until we awake from our collective self-delusion, until we carry out sustained acts of civil disobedience against the corporate state and sever ourselves from the liberal institutions that serve the corporate juggernaut—especially the Democratic Party—we will continue to be rocketed toward a global catastrophe.

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BY CAROLYN, ON MARCH 27TH, 2011
Carolyn and Janaia 

Carolyn Baker stopped by for a Peak Moment conversation on her way back to Colorado after conducting a workshop based on her new book, Navigating the Coming Chaos: A Handbook for Inner Transition.

In spring of 2010 we’d taped a long-distance conversation via skype about her earlier ground-breaking book Sacred Demise: Walking the . . . → Read More: Janaia’s Journal: Carolyn and Janaia Talk About “Navigating The Coming Chaos”

 

Scionwood Exchange (fruit tree grafting)
Wed, March 30, 11am – 12pm, 2011
Where
UMD, Life Science – Room 20 (UMD’s LOWER GREEN HOUSE)

Attention all fruit grafters! The official fruit tree scion exchange time and place: March 30, 11:00 AM Life Science 20 AT UMD.  Some root stock will be available for apple and pear at $7.00 each, Deb Shubat will have other grafting supplies. If you are picking up scion wood bring plastic bags. If you are bringing scion wood to trade or give away please be ready to supply a name and description of the fruit. Contact Deb Shubat if you want to get some scion wood but you can’t come at this time and there will be some extra available. 726-7258 for questions

To find room 20 in the life science building: come into campus by way of Kirby Drive, the life science building is on the College street end of Kirby drive. There are parking meters on Kirby drive across from the giant rising moon sculpture. You can’t really get into the greenhouse from outside unless you see someone working inside who can open the door. So follow the sidewalk to the main door to Life science – it has a stone awning over it- and go down the hall toward College st, go down the stairs to the ground floor or take the elevator, room 20 is next to the elevator. (this is the “lower greenhouse” – in courtyard surrounded by Med School, Life Sci, MWAH and “Chem 200″ bldgs)

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SCIONWOOD so far

APPLE:
Norland, Sweet 16, Honeycrisp, Haralson, Goodland, 1628, Charette, Ginger Gold, Minjon, Duchess of Oldenburg, Starkey

PEAR: Parker, Luscious, Summercrisp, Golden Spice

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SCIONWOOD DESCRIPTIONS !

APPLES

* * *Shubats Apple scions * * *

Norland Apple,   Malus ‘Norland’: 9/16, Norland standard
Hardy dwarf-type, annual bearer. Medium size good quality red fruit. Sweet flavor and soft texture, good for eating and cooking. Keeps about 16 weeks in cold storage. Fruit must be picked before full maturity for storage or use. Height 20 Spread 25 Origin Developed in Saskatchewan, Canada. ‘Rescue’ x ‘Melba’. Texture Soft Flavor Sweet Average Ripening Date Late August

Chestnut Crab,  Malus ‘Chestnut’: Chestnut Crab. Fruit is bronze red and great for fresh eating. Stores well. Zone 3. Nut like Sweet flavor . Average Ripening Date Early September

Sweet 16: One of the most unusual flavored apples in Minnesota. Very sweet with a flavor like cherry candy.

Honeycrisp: Perhaps Minnesota’s premier eating apple. It has a well-balanced sweet/tart flavor and unusually crisp texture, which has been called “explosively crisp.” It’s also one of the best keeping apples, storing up to seven months in refrigeration.

Haralson :One of Minnesota’s favorites. Tart flavor, good storage and excellent for cooking.
Goodland Apple :One of the best apples for the colder regions. Washed red over creamy green. Annual bearer. Flesh is crisp, juicy, tender, and aromatic. Good for storing and excellent for eating.

1628 :  Ripe in October yellow under red obconic, good storage fresh eating and cooking apple Hardy in Zone 3 and 4 . from the MN apple breeding program and not yet named.

* * Will Rhodes -  apples scions * *
Honeycrisp  (See above)
Sweet 16   (see above)

Charrette = fall season. also “Donut Apple”. Unknown parentage. Huge flat light yellow fruit speckled with splotches of dark yellow and covered with maroon streaks and a bright red blush. often seedless.  excellent fresh eating and drying. Ripens about the end of Sept.  from fedco / northern maine. Blooms midseason. Zone 3-5

Ginger Gold = Early. aug/sept? fruit is conical and starts out a very pale green, though if left on the tree will ripen to a soft yellow with a slightly waxy appearance.The primary use is for eating out of hand, though it can be used for most other purposes. The flesh, of a cream color, resists browning more than most varieties. The flavor is mild but with a tart finish.

Starkey =  Fall-Early Winter. fedco / Maine. Very high-quality fall fresh-eating apple, its exquisite combination of crisp sweetness and tartness  Medium-sized roundish fruit is rosy red, sprinkled with pronounced white dots. Keeps well into winter. We begin to get into them in late September, with perfect eating being just about New Year’s. Still quite decent in February. Medium-large tree blooms early to midseason. Z4-5.

**Antonich apple scions:**

Dutchess,  (aug?) extremely hardy, is medium size with skin color pale yellow with crimson stripes and splashes. Flavor is slightly tart. Superb for pies and sauce.

Minjon  heirloom variety, the Minjon is believed to be a cross between the Jonathan and Wealthy. It is a small, firm to medium sized, dark red apple with a tart, dry flavor that stores well.

PEARS
Shubats Pear scions:
An introduction of the University of Minnesota in 1934, the Parker pear tree is an open pollinated seedling of Manchurian pear. Produces large, yellow-bronze fruit that is fine grained, tender and juicy. Upright and vigorous, it is an excellent pollinator for Luscious.
Recommended for Zones 4-8. The Luscious pear tree produces a medium to small, bright yellow pear that is very juicy and sweet. Blooms in early May and fruit ripens mid September.

SUMMER CRISP – Developed at the University of Minnesota in 1986 as an early ripening pear with the crunch and juiciness of an Asian pear. These are medium size fruit with sweet crisp flesh, and a slightly aromatic flavor.  They are a refreshing summer treat.

Golden Spice Released by the University of Minnesota breeding program in 1949, ‘Golden Spice’ is hardy into USDA Zone 3 and still a fine choice. Small 1 ¾” pears ripen in September and are pleasant and aromatic. Does not store well.

Energy Bulletin has such a great bunch of posts, I’m highlighting alot of them below.  Its hard to pick a favorite. Pick and read yours.

Overcoming systems stupidity

John Michael Greer, The Archdruid Report

A very large part of the reason why contemporary American society so often defeats itself by chasing after fantasies of limitless growth is a learned blindness to the behavior of whole systems. It’s hard to think of a challenge more necessary or less popular than learning to measure our expectations against the realities, and especially the limits, of natural systems; the Archdruid suggests some resources for the job.

Hunger for change

Craig K. Comstock, The Huffington Post

Sharply rising food prices have often meant trouble for governments, especially when people expect better and the cost of food is a big fraction of average household consumption. In the U.S., where grocery costs are a small fraction of the average budget, it is hard to imagine the effect of sharply rising prices for bread or rice, cooking oil, and other essential foods. It’s seldom been enough for out-of-touch regimes to say, “let them eat paistries” (or brioche, as Marie Antoinette put it in the face of the French revolution).

Delivering the message

Charlotte Du Cann, Transition Norwich Blog

[I] wrote about things that deeply affected me on a global and planetary level and what Transition was doing at a local level to configure the world that had got so out of balance: seedling swaps and community gardens, Transition Circles, Bungay Community Bees, all our decisions to use less energy, eat differently, come together in small bands and work to build a low-carbon culture.

Naomi Klein: Addicted to risk (VIDEO)Video

TEDWomen, TED

Days before this talk, journalist Naomi Klein was on a boat in the Gulf of Mexico, looking at the catastrophic results of BP’s risky pursuit of oil. Our societies have become addicted to extreme risk in finding new energy, new financial instruments and more … and too often, we’re left to clean up a mess afterward. Klein’s question: What’s the backup plan?

Two stories: Forests, fields, food

Jim Bannon, An Ecology of Home

There is a story implicit in the farmer’s relation to the land, and it is our culture’s central organizing myth, the one that informs all the other stories we tell. The story is just a few words long, but its implications are widespread and profound. The story is this: everything belongs to us.

Global population speak out

Sharon Astyk, Casaubon’s Book

We do have to talk about population – we have to talk about it honestly and clearly, and with an eye to the real complexities of the issue. We have to put it on the table and stop being afraid of it. We have to have these conversations even when they are difficult, personal, emotional and when they are hard.

Wood by the cord yields lots of discord

Gene Logsdon, OrganicToBe.org

Sitting by the woodstove, I am warmed twice when I read that a cord of shagbark hickory equals 250 gallons of No. 2 oil in heat value. I don’t know what heating oil costs right now, or what that equals in gas heat or electric heat, but it sounds like my wood is worth real money today.

Life within the soil (AUDIO) Audio

Doug Weatherbee, Sustainable World Radio

Doug Weatherbee, a Soil Foodweb Advisor and owner of SoilDoctor.org, talks about the biodiversity that lies beneath our feet.  Soil is alive!

Navigating The Coming Chaos: A Handbook For Inner Transition (Book Introduction)

Carolyn Baker, Speaking Truth to Power

In the closing months of the first decade of the twenty-first century, what does the world need most?

Health and food security

Bethany Schroeder, TCLocal

Both health and food security are fraught with expectations at social, academic, and governmental/regulatory levels. Both are states of mind as well as physical conditions. Absent either, the human organism eventually dies.

Transition and the Totnes Energy Descent Action Plan (EDAP)

Pat Murphy, Community Solutions

“Your EDAP should feel more like a holiday brochure, presenting a localized, low-energy world in such an enticing way that anyone reading it will feel their life utterly bereft if they don’t dedicate the rest of their lives towards its realization.” Does the Totnes EDAP meet this criterion? Does it feel like a holiday brochure? Is it an adequate model for the changes needed in a community? Will the “holiday brochure” somehow be developed into a practical action plan? This is still unclear.

The broader palette

Brian Kaller, Restoring Mayberry

Even if we restrict ourselves to the minority of plants that have become domesticated crops, we typically recognize only a few varieties of each – the ones bred recently for fossil-fuel transport, not for taste, health or your climate. Take the colour, for example – most of us have never seen green oranges, purple carrots, striped beets or blue potatoes.

Farmer by farmer, an organic transition

John Cavanagh and Robin Broad, Yes! Magazine

According to Gil: “Only about 2 percent of what we eat comes from outside the farm: salt, some cooking oil, spices. That’s it.”

Building a local food system: An interview with Bob Waldrop of the Oklahoma Food Cooperative (audio)Audio

Andrew MacDonald, Radical Relocalization

Bob Waldrop was the driver behind the forming of the Oklahoma Food Cooperative in 2003. Here Bob explains how the co-op, which started with just 60 members and 15 producers, has grown to 3400 members and 200 producers, effectively transforming the local food scene in Oklahoma. Bob shares thoughts about doing it where you are.

Stimulus duds, bailout blanks

Richard Heinberg, Post Carbon Institute

In response to the financial crisis, governments and central banks have undertaken a series of extraordinary, dramatic measures. In this section we will focus primarily on the U.S….From Richard Heinberg’s upcoming book The End Growth.

The peaking of coping strategies

Clifford Dean Scholz, Energy Bulletin

Human societies, like individuals, can still be undone by their own tendency to do whatever has worked (or seemed to work) past the point where it’s simply not working.

(  EB editor says: Clifford Scholz has an excellent point about cheap energy enabling dysfunctional behavior  )

Variety of articles.

McCoy’s article (which rings true or “truthy”) and Xtcian’s response are
familiar. We find ourselves (America,etc) heading down a road of
disintigration of “how things currently are”, and it sounds unpleasant
and is unpleasant to dwell on.

On the somewhat-flip-side, Joanna P. (part of Transition Los Angeles?)
writes her “The Power of Positive” which i quote heavily below.
Her piece is inspiring. we need inspriring.

The founder of “Transition Town”, Rob Hopkins – writes a (longer)
critical response to Brownlee’s recent article

Sure seems like (we / you / me / all / together and in our selves) need
to be doing something more,
prepping and help people prep. And do what feels good to be doing, not
fearful. Tho no doubt fear is a hard one to tame.

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http://energybulletin.net/stories/2010-12-06/taking-down-america
Published Dec 5 2010 by TomDispatch.com, Archived Dec 6 2010
Taking down America: four scenarios for the end of the American
Century by 2025
by Alfred McCoy

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http://www.xtcian.com/arch/003431.php http://www.xtcian.com/
XTCIAN’s depressed by McCoy’s article..
“There is one thing I’ve learned in all my years of therapy, and that
is DON’T READ ARTICLES LIKE THIS ONE (McCoy)”

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http://energybulletin.net/stories/2010-12-07/power-positive
Published Dec 5 2010 by Transition US, Archived Dec 7 2010
The power of positive
by Joanne Poyourow
- partially a response to Brownlee’s long article on Transition (i.e.
Brownlee’s take – USA transition town effort “slowing down”)
- mentions Stoneleigh (Nicole) Foss finance talk..
- mentions the permaculture flower =
http://permacultureprinciples.com/flower.php
- quote “It prompted Orion Magazine to write “If the Transition
Initiative were a person, you’d say he or she was charismatic, wise,
practical, positive, resourceful, and very, very popular.”
- “We will need a uniquely American approach to Transition,” Brownlee
writes, and I wholeheartedly agree with that line. In fact, that is
precisely what all the Transition materials encourage us to do:
adapt the materials to the unique needs of our local area.”
- As I read the materials coming from other U.S. initiatives, the
variety pours forth. Sebastopol’s community mapping sounds great –
I hope one day we can try it here. The tapes from the Transition
Cascadia Regional Summit were awesome; I learned a lot by listening
to the speakers from Reno and Whatcom and what they are doing there.
Here in L.A. we’ve had Transition visitors from Kentucky and
Illinois, and we hear how they are going about it. The uniquely
American approach, infused with rich local wisdom, is already
underway.
- The Totnes birthplace of the Transition movement continues to
inspire us. They are developing new ideas for their geography and,
for the most part, sharing them quite openly for the world to copy.
The international Transition Network valiantly tries to be a place
where all of us, U.S. included, can share what we are learning and
developing so that others can do it too. In short, we all need each
other. No one initiative, no one area, no one country or continent
is in this alone. We’re all in this mess, and it’s going to take all
of us — working together and sharing ideas — to design a way out.
- (she mentions also “Three Dimensions of the Great Turning” =
Stopping Action, Creating New Structures, Shift in Consciousness

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http://energybulletin.net/stories/2010-12-06/critical-response-michael-brownlee%E2%80%99s-call-%E2%80%98deep-transition%E2%80%99
A critical response to Michael Brownlee’s call for ‘Deep Transition’
Rob Hopkins, Transition Culture

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http://energybulletin.net/stories/2010-12-07/coal-climate-and-confusion
the really really don’t read this one article (coal and 4 C rise)

- The ”Transition Town” movement’s initial genius
- The Evolution of Transition In The U.S., By Michael Brownlee
- Should Americans cut and run?
- The Truth About Trees
- Truth Needn’t be Scary
- Health requires deep changes
- Peak oil and four principles of PR

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http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-11-29/transition-town-movements-initial-genius
Published Nov 29 2010 by The Huffington Post, Archived Nov 29 2010
The ”Transition Town” movement’s initial genius
by Craig K. Comstock
(some praise and critique of Transition Town movement)

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http://carolynbaker.net/2010/11/26/the-evolution-of-transition-in-the-u-s-by-michael-brownlee/
The Evolution of Transition In The U.S., By Michael Brownlee
November 26th, 2010

detailed, insightful, up to date .. critique and commentary on
“transition”/transition town in the U.S.

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http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-11-30/should-americans-cut-and-run
published Nov 30 2010 by Casaubon’s Book, Archived Nov 30 2010
Should Americans cut and run?
by Sharon Astyk     (should people stay in America?)

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http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-11-29/truth-about-trees
Published Nov 29 2010 by Julia Mitchell , Archived Nov 29 2010
The Truth About Trees
by Julia Mitchell
“A tree is a cooperative, a protector, a moderator, a creator, and a
teacher.”

====================

http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-11-29/truth-neednt-be-scary
Published Nov 29 2010 by Natural Systems Solutions, Archived Nov 29 2010
Truth Needn’t be Scary
by Dave Ewoldt               (pulled quoted below)

“Something else I know in the area of economics is that our current
economy is based on fairy dust.”

“Because something else I know–from direct experience–is that if you
take the time to honestly lay things out for people, they get it. This
works best if you first take the time to listen to their concerns and
hopes.”

“Now, some people are just very deep in the consensus trance, but many
of the people I’ve talked with over the years who say ”Don’t scare
people, they can’t handle the truth, they’ll just shut down,” turn out
to be stalwarts of the status quo of growth and empire, even when they
insist that they’re really dog soldiers for the peace or environmental
or whatever movements. The conditioning that declares growth and
material accumulation as necessary for progress and prosperity runs very
deep, and the artificial stimuli that enforce this worldview are
constant and applied in myriad ways.

“We have the ability to rapidly change. It seems that what we’re really
lacking at a cultural level is the motivation, which a full set of facts
can help provide. ”

“I think most people would quite willingly give up their body burden,
despair, and the lack of time to develop any type of meaningful, lasting
relationships with family, friends, community, and environment. The
truth needn’t be scary, especially when there are alternatives to the
dysfunctional status quo to be offered. But we must be honest about how
much damage we’ve already caused, about how it’s come to be, and about
what we could start doing differently. Because what we’re facing now is
a global Truth or Consequences.”
======================

http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-11-29/health-requires-deep-changes
Published Nov 29 2010 by Energy Bulletin, Archived Nov 29 2010
Health requires deep changes
by Cecile Andrews

“Living simply is about living naturally — living in harmony with
nature, protecting nature, remembering we’re part of nature. And so,
as we struggle to stay healthy during the winter, it’s helpful to see
how natural approaches can help.”

============================

http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-11-29/peak-oil-and-four-principles-pr
Published Nov 29 2010 by ASPO-USA, Archived Nov 29 2010
Peak oil and four principles of PR
by Kurt Cobb
1. Never, ever publicly criticize the media. There’s no upside.
2. Fear triumphs over hope.
“The human nervous system is designed to build hope slowly and react to
fear quickly..”
“Fear has to find its resolution in action. ….”
(give people ideas that..) will make their lives better whether peak oil
hits soon or not”
3. If you’re explaining, you’re losing.
4. The cover-up is always far more damaging than the screw-up.
“When it comes to making predictions for reporters, I have one word of
advice: DON’T! The currently well-established facts are scary enough. If
you must talk about the future, talk about it in terms of risks, not
forecasts. If you make predictions, you are setting yourself up for a
fall….”

( this is a guest post from "ml" )

============================

This link is a compilation of the energy policies of the Obama / Biden
team.

It's looking increasingly possible that they may be in charge for
the next four years so we might as well study up and look for a silver
lining for the country and for all interests. Consider it patriotism in
a time of emergency. I don't think I've seen a political statement more
in tune with the realities ahead of us. Unlike most political
statements, this certainly looks to be the work of unusually well
informed people and we should pay very close attention. Ignoring this
momentum may mean falling behind in a time of unavoidable and rapid
change and a resulting loss of relevance for some as the facts become
undeniable.

If McCain should win instead we would be mistaken to think that any of
the issues outlined in this piece will go away on their own. I'm afraid
that the opposite will be true in that case as yet more years of
misguided policy would squander precious time and resources. In that
case, based on the performance in the debates, we will be up against
these converging emergencies without a cohesive national effort as
congress struggles to work against a mean spirited effort to cling to
irrelevant  and dying mythology. We will drill everywhere we can get a
drill rig before long and it will solve nothing at all. Let's move on.

WHAT WE HAVE BEEN DOING IS WHAT GOT US HERE. MORE OF THE SAME WILL NOT
FIX IT.

For the past two decades at least we have lived in a time of escalating
internal political wars. It has divided our country and our efforts. I
sincerely hope that we can stop the culture wars that are driving a
wedge into our efforts and blocking effective solutions. It is time to
become much better informed, find ways to become liberated from the
inhibiting effects of previous investments and to take bold meaningful
steps rather than the tentative incrementalism of past efforts that has
locked us into mediocre performance in most of our energy infrastructure.

WHAT WE HAVE BEEN DOING IS WHAT GOT US HERE. MORE OF THE SAME WILL NOT
FIX IT.

We need to stop repeating shallow myths. Ideas like we can run our
current systems totally on biofuels and vaporized garbage or power
everything in the country on wind turbines in a few states are no more
credible than statements claiming that we have hundreds of years of
coal, climate change is caused by sunspots and cows burping, mercury all
comes from volcanoes or the universe was created 6,000 years ago. As a
whole, we suffer from a powerful combination of wishful thinking,
reaction and denial.

Here is a quote from Obama's statement that I imagine will spur a bit of
denial:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
"According to the United Nations, America is only the 22nd most energy
efficient country among the major economies in the world, which means we
spend more on energy than we need to because our lifestyle and our built
environment are wasting too much excess energy. Since 1973, the average
amount of electricity each of us uses has tripled. We can do better."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

We are wasting energy and polluting way more than is needed to support
our country and economy. This represents huge opportunities for
innovation and job creation to rebuild a more efficient infrastructure.
Our approach to energy has been similar to our misguided financial
policies. We are risking a similar meltdown and the country cannot
afford another bailout of hundreds of billions of dollars as this party
breaks up and the hangover sets in. More importantly, we cannot print
oil or gas like we can money.

WHAT WE HAVE BEEN DOING IS WHAT GOT US HERE. MORE OF THE SAME WILL NOT
FIX IT.

We have mostly squandered three decades of opportunity since our last
energy wake up call. We would be foolish to look backwards for
solutions. We are entering into territory that is brand new and based on
realities that have never before been faced by humans.

This might be our best chance to stop fighting and get to work. The
policies outlined will only be effective if we can get on board and pull
together. The actual paths taken will end up looking somewhat different
of course but the results need to be at least this aggressive to address
what is rushing at us.

Whatever your politics, please take the time to read This link  (energy policies of Obama / Biden ).

Whether you like these proposals or not, we will need some
fresh and meaningful ideas very soon.

Thanks.

ml

iLargi over at TheAutomaticEarth keeps posting undeniable wisdoms about the disintegrating financial and housing systems. His recent posts (and links to other sources) illustrate, point-blank, whats going on:

The Automatic Earth / Debt Rattle: “Test for Leaks”, 8/18/2008

The Automatic Earth / Debt Rattle: “Inflation is a Deliberate Lie”, 8/19/2008

also, an incredibly insightful post, that i also quote, below

The Great Consumer Crash of 2009  ( James Quinn, 8/14/2008 )

I know these all aren’t exactly Duluth local-specific, nor specific to energy. But our local system is (currently) tied pretty directly to what happens nationally and energy is (currently) priced in dollars – aka the financial system of the present moment.  There is no doubt by looking at the financial struggles that St. Louis County and the City of Duluth are wrapped up in for the foreseeable future  – that financial troubles are very local. More on that later.  Now,  I’ll post a few snips and links from these “TAE”  posts, then you can read some thoughts below from locals WD and Gakadena, at bottom.

————-

iLargi: “Since Barron’s estimates that Fannie and Freddie’s real value is negative $50 billion -each-, look for the Treasury and the Fed to figure out a way to pump $100 billion past the receding event horizon that envelops these companies.

And that will by no means be the last we hear of this. After all, $100 billion is still a far cry away from $5.3 trillion. If -make that when- US housing continues to falter, a lot more money will be needed. Long before Christmas.”

——————-

Morgan Stanley Sees 2009 As The Year Of The Locusts:

The financial crisis will probably not end until next year or even 2010, Germany’s Handelsblatt newspaper quoted Morgan Stanley co-President Walid Chammah as saying.

——————

iLargi:  “Now that  it” (credit craze/mega-splurge) “is over, and the only way to purchase anything will soon be with money, which means cash, gold or silver, because credit will disappear. This will shake our societies to the core, like a quake measuring 9 on the Richter scale.

Wherever you look in our neck of the world, credit finances everything. Without an open credit line, 99% of businesses and governments simply cannot function. WIthout credit, home sales will become extinct, as will new car sales.

But during the sharpest contraction in US money supply in history, the president of the Federal Reserve, the secretary of the Treasury, and all the media are still incessantly talking about inflation -and stagflation- as the biggest problems in the economy.

However, looking at the numbers of the crunching credit and money supply, one thing is obvious: no matter how one defines inflation, the sharpest contraction in history cannot possibly exist alongside inflation. It is impossible.

It’s so ridiculous, it is utter nonsense to even suggest it. In any and all serious economic models and schools, it’s 100% evident that this sort of contraction shouts DE-flation. And they know it. . . .

. . . What makes the (inflation) lie so easy is that people have been brought up with the concept of inflation, and what it may lead to. Nobody today has any idea what deflation will mean. Well, that is about to change.

———————

Large U.S. Banks To Fail Amid Recession, Rogoff Says

Credit market turmoil has driven the U.S. into a recession and may topple some of the nation’s biggest banks, said Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.

“The worst is yet to come in the U.S.,” Rogoff  said in an interview in Singapore today. “The financial sector needs to shrink; I don’t think simply having a couple of medium-sized banks and a couple of small banks going under is going to do the job.”

——————————-

This from James Quinn .. is well-done, flat-out convincing and undeniabe.  (iLargi linked to it on Aug. 16). I can’t do it justice with a few quotes, but i’ll paste some below. really encourage you to read it – if you need to.

The Great Consumer Crash of 2009 (James Quinn, Aug. 14, 2008)

Quinn: I have been accused by many of my friends and family as someone who sees the glass as half empty. I disagree with their assessment. I see the glass as it is. I find myself scratching my head trying to figure out why a society that always saved for a rainy day, consistently saving between 8% and 11% of their disposable income, now has a negative savings rate. I believe that keeping up with the Jones’ is the primary reason that Americans have taken on so much debt.

Quinn, on Positive Feedback Loop:

14.    Retailers, homebuilders, restaurants, and car makers extrapolated the false demand far into the future. There are now over 7,000 Wal-Marts, 6,000 CVSs, and 30,000 McDonalds. Any company that built their business on false assumptions and excess debt will be meeting their maker, shortly.

16.    The debt induced spending that occurred from 2001 until 2007 accounted for virtually all the GDP growth over this time. Without the mortgage equity withdrawal, the U.S. would have had less than 1% average GDP growth for the entire period.

Quinn, on Negative Feedback Loop:

1.    Home prices reached an unsustainable level in 2006. Prices had gone parabolic between 2001 and 2006, with the average price reaching above $225,000. In 2001, prices were just above $125,000. As the pundits keep looking for a bottom in housing, (the chart at website) clearly shows there is a long way to go.

2.    The massive overbuilding based on false demand has led to 3.5 million excess homes in the U.S. based upon historical trends. The most shocking fact is that there are 1.5 million vacant homes. This oversupply can only be corrected by massive price decreases.

3.   With the tremendous price increases in houses over the last decade, you would think that equity would be at all-time highs. But no, owner equity as a percentage of house value has reached an all-time low of 45%. People have sucked the equity out of their homes and spent it faster than the prices were rising. The problem is that house prices can and will fall, debt remains like an anchor around your neck until paid off or it drags you down into bankruptcy.

5.   The combination of oversupply, over-leverage, and foreclosure tsunami has now taken on a life of its own. Home prices have been spiraling downward for two years to the point where 29% of all households that purchased in the last five years owe more than their house is worth according to Zillow, the home valuation company. For those who bought in 2006, 45% have negative equity. It is now making economic sense for people to just walk away from their house and send the keys to the lender. This is referred to as ‘jingle mail’.

7.   Consumers have dramatically increased the use of credit cards, now that the housing ATM has run out of cash. The average American household has credit card debt of $9,840 versus $2,966 in 1990, at an average interest rate of 19%. Credit card delinquencies have increased

(Quinn also adds a large laundry list of retailers that have gone out of business, or closed many stores or scaled back – and tied to that shopping-mall developers (not surprisingly) are in big trouble. Quinn then concludes  )

“In conclusion, the gathering storm has arrived. It will be long, painful and destructive. Those who prepared for the storm by not taking on excessive debt and living above their means, will ride it out unscathed. Those who built their house on sand by leveraging up and living the “good” life, will see their house swept out to sea. The storm will pass and we will rebuild. Our country is resilient. The purging of this massive debt will result in the creative destruction that is the hallmark of American capitalism. New opportunities, new technologies and a new attitude will put us back on course.

There has been and will be resistance to the inevitable deep recession that is coming.   The American consumer is not cutting back willingly. They are being dragged kicking and screaming towards the joys of frugality. The “material generation” needs to dematerialize. My biggest concern is that our politician leaders and their cronies running our government will continue to try and reverse the normal capitalistic course of recession and expansion. Companies need to fail, housing needs to find its bottom based on supply, demand and price. Those who gambled must be allowed to lose and suffer the consequences. If the government attempts to shift the losses to those who lived lifestyles of thrift, an angry uprising will ensue. Government intervention in this natural process could lead to a decade long depression. Let’s hope that reasonable heads prevail.”

——————————-

Economists warn inflation could fall below 1 per cent  (UK)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/17/cncpi117.xml

——————————-

in reaction to this article,  “WD” wrote:

Lorax4, It sounds like this economist is talking about the UK economy.  And I am sure that his Monetary Policy Committee is not related to US monetary policy.  In the US the Dept of Treasury and the Federal Reserve are supposed to work together to insure the security and value of our currency.
Unfortunately, the Administration has purposely been deceiving the public about the size of the hole we are in.   This is what happens when we wage empire while cutting taxes.  I bet most citizens do not know that the US Debt ceiling was recently raised by (Dems) Congress to $10.4 trillion.  This size number should get media leaders screaming.  But we hear nothing.  And the BLS created a new term ‘core inflation’ to subtract impacts of food and energy from our budget assessment.  That is willful deception.
And about 1998, the FED decided to stop publishing M3, the total aggregate flow of US currency when we add cash and digital dollars.  The real figure if you could get it, is about $17.2 trillion for 08.  Sadly, it should be about $14. trillion.   We are making more money than we deserve.  The value is not there and the world knows it.  Hence the US stagflation will cause the dollar to decline over the long run.
We simply do not generate the value ($14 trillion) that we spend on goods, services, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran…..   So thinks are not looking up as this currency mis-management expands.  The US government is actively deceiving the public with help from the corporate media.  With unemployment growing, it will be hard to increase the value of our output.  This is why in the relative world of global currencies everything will cost more tomorrow.  Our house of financial cards has begun falling.
There is a certain symmetry beteen the fiscal mess and our energy mess.  Mass deception has increased the need for more deception.  In military terms, this is called doing ‘psy-ops’ on your target people.   That would be ‘we the people.’       WD
————————-
WD,  I think your analysis is very true.  The question I always come up with
is how long can this deception last?  It seems like quite a while longer
because 'we the people' are going along with it and even active
participants in it.  And the rest of the world is content to go along
with it too.  Why not put off the day of reckoning til next year?  I
couldn't believe that the "core inflation" slight of hand would escape
criticism from somewhere in our society but everyone accepts it as a
true measure of inflation.     Gakadena
—————————————-

July 2008

UMD Chancellor:
UMD Chancellor Kathryn A. Martin said, “The enormous potential of
UMD’s new Civil Engineering program, along with this magnificent new
building designed to house it, cannot be overestimated. The demand
for civil engineers in our area and our state is strong and growing
stronger.

Lorax4:
I am surprised you have not heard of the large U.S. ecomomic recession (likely much worse than recession) that is bearing down on us as we speak, as well at the mortage bubble / mess that is cascading through our country and building speed. A logical person would recognize that the building (and standard engineering) needs of the country will be far differant then what you envision.

UMD:
the building is designed to be a LEED certified “green building”.

Lorax4:
I appreciate your efforts to make a so-called "Green building", but how
green is green? The energy situation in our country is at a tipping point, with much much higher prices and need for deep energy conservation on the way. Does this building generate all of its own electricity needs from solar panels? Will the building be generating its own hot-water from a solar-hot-water system? Is the rainwater caught off the room supplying the water needs of the building? Will there be any wind-power captured? Will the human waste and graywater be recycled and used as valuable plant nutrition on site or on campus? Will the energy efficiency of the building be pushed much, much farther then LEED? (as much more advanced, intelligent building standards do). If not, why not?

Why isn't the University out in the forefront of super energy-efficient and enviromentally-friendly building?

UMD:
Of the six total laboratories, two will be very large--reaching two-
stories high with full glass walls providing “Engineering on Display”

Lorax4:
Pinch me. Huge glass walls? Can you tell me the heat-loss thru the glass for Minnesota winters? I'd be interested to hear the calculations.

UMD:
Funding for the building was provided by the Minnesota Legislature
which approved a $10 million capital bonding request this spring.
UMD benefactor and 1959 graduate, James I. Swenson (Swenson Family
Foundation) donated $3 million. An additional $2 million was
provided by university funds.

Lorax4:
Given the turbulent energy and economic times already hear and going ahead, and so many recent poorly built - in my opinion - Duluth area buildings (including UMD's recent buildings), this seems like money very, very poorly spent. Can you say "DECC expansion"?

UMD:
(the new building is ) Planned to be an Environmental “Green Building”

Lorax4:
I don't believe it for a minute. see my comments above.

UMD:
The structure will be the 6th new building to be constructed on the UMD campus since 2000.

Lorax4:
Do you want a medal? for over-building bad buildings in the face of an
energy and economic hurricane that will likely make all these buildings
nearly useless? Resources mis-spent by the state-goverment and University that could
have been MUCH better spent in other ways, on sustainable buildings, sustainable agriculture and a thousand other things (that will matter in the near future) that need improvement. But no, we build "same old, same old" and give it "green" windowdressing by slapping "LEED" on it. Why is UMD wearing blinders and running towards a brick wall?

Guest post from “WD”, in reaction to Ben Bernanke …

=================================

Bernanke signals more rate cuts unlikely http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080603/ap_on_bi_ge/bernanke_economy_41

…Fed Chairmain Ben Bernanke notes..

- High oil prices are a double-edged sword that can both put a damper on already weak growth and spread inflation,

- “For now (fed rate) policy seems well positioned to promote moderate growth and price stability over time,”

=================================

WD:

This article shows the face of simple thinking.
In 2006, the Fed quit reporting on M3. This was the simple aggregate of all the dollars and demand deposits (digital dollars in the eworld). They gave up publishing it saying it was too hard to do in an ‘integrated and global economy’. This meant that they could not track how much was going into the US domestic economy and how much was going abroad. So they stopped publishing it.
The unstated side of the problem was that the US money supply was growing faster than the value of goods and services we produce. This was a deeper and more foreboding problem indicating that the value of the US dollar as a currency was less secure. The federal response from FED and Treasury has been to not talk about inflation and to make ‘unannounced’ additions to the US money supply. The Wars in the Middle East have added to this problem. The military might of the US runs on oil. Now it runs on imported oil. So financial, economic and military security in the US depends on imported oil. This gets more interesting.
Saudi oil output seems to be in decline (google search for images: saudi oil in decline). After talking with Como oil today, I think heating oil and propane have gone up close to 50% in the last year. No one’s income when up that much. Also, the growth of the money supply (M3) is a bit over 16% while the US GDP is less than 1%. That means inflation generally is 15% for every family and business in the US. This will cause a flight from the dollar. And dollar dumping will aggravate our costs for energy, food, housing and loans. Hence the worsening stagflation.
It seems to me that we do not have time or capital to build a new technology (Fusion?) to get us out of the stag-trap. So we will get creative with our social innovation. This brings in sustainable communities, cooperative living, intentional communities and new religious groups. These groups may thrive if they have different skills and sensibilities, mutual respect, biomass, water and land. I predict the divorce rate is going down due to the intensifying needs of family members. This could be another positive side to a difficult challenge. As we de-industrialize, we may feel enriched even as our account balances slip.

Here is some discussion about gardening and grains.

(reminder: food is our energy, and how we grow and get it will continue to be ever-more important and ever-more clear)

1st: Link to a piece written by Stan Goff, of the well-respected Land Institute

2nd: reaction from Lorax4, on trying local grain / oilseed growing

3rd: reaction from Dan K, on gardening and root crops

===============================

http://www.energybulletin.net/45135.html
Published on 30 May 2008 by Common Dreams.

It will take a lot more than gardening to fix our food system
by Stan Cox

===============================

LORAX4:

Stan Goff is not anti-gardening, he thinks we need to do gardening for sure. But his point is man survives by eating lots of grains that gardeners don't grow.

He encourages - I assume national - political involvement to make
change (to fix food system). I'd advocate that he's somewhat wrong. I don't think the govt(s) we have will be in any position to save / figure out these things, nor will these govt's survive that long. I think very local / regional groups/individual-folks/govts should think about growing grains and oilseeds.


I've been meaning to send something alot the lines of challenging
gardening friends, this very summer, to grow even a handful of local grains or oilseeds... barley?/ rye? I think Dan K was advocating one that grew up here (duluth area), and i'd assume oats, buckwheat, some corn, and some sort of oilseeds. (what kind?) I think its a good thing to try to plant some of these things, even in small patches in gardens, if nothing more then to expand ones own seedstock.

===============================

DAN K.

Interesting points by Stan Cox
Contrary to Stan, I for one would rather spend my time gardening than on
political dissent. I think it is time better spend and it does help me,
my family and my community. One small step at a time.
Sharon Astyk had a great article last fall on different food traditions
from different cultures. European traditional foods are predominately
grains and seeds. That is what we are used to eating. So I think that
colors the author's perspectives. Grains and seeds are a good fit for
the industrial economic model, they store well and ship easily with a
lot of nutrient packed into a small package.

Sharon talked about the root vegetable tradition of west Africa and how
that approach to nutrition served to help keep the slaves brought over
to the new world from mal-nutrition when they were served only corn meal
mush and expected to do heavy labor. I can see root vegetable tradition as an appropriate fit for a local economy and smaller land holdings. Shipping and storage are less of an issue if you consume it locally.

I think grains and beans will be with us for a long time. I do not plan
to grow all of my food myself. My strategy is to use my garden to supplement grains and beans which I can purchase and store. Doing one small step at a time we will get to a more local and sustainable way of meeting our food needs.

My dad's family basically lived off of potatoes, sour kraut and
rutabegga during the depression for a family of six, which they grew on
their own land, and stored on site. They did have some milk products
also. So I think it is possible to grow most of your food if you have
access to about 1/4-1/2 acre of the right type of land. I remember them talking about having their entire basement filled with potatoes. My dad won't eat rutabegga to this day.

Having the types of foods for a local area that fit with the climate, soil, topography etc and not be strictly tied down to one food tradition is an interesting topic for exploration. Roots, small grains, dairy have a place locally in my opinion. I like bread and would not want to give it up, but I think there are a lot of grain alternatives not involving wheat that can be grown locally.

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